Manifold Markets Screensaver
The Manifold Markets screensaver shows what a play-money prediction market currently believes, key-less. It's free, runs in your browser, and ESC exits.
Live preview
Press ESC to leave fullscreen. Settings are saved in your browser only.
How the Manifold Markets screensaver works
The saver reads the source described above and draws it on a canvas — no account, no tracking.
What a play-money prediction market currently believes, key-less. Distinct from the site's Polymarket saver: Manifold runs on play currency so anyone can open a market on anything, and the board is ranked by the last day's trading rather than by size.
It refreshes on a schedule, so what you see stays current.
Colours and any options can be changed in settings; nothing is stored beyond your own browser.
Prices as probabilities, without real money
Manifold, formerly Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform founded in December 2021 where users trade on the likelihood of future events. A price between 0 and 100 percent is read as the crowd’s current probability of a yes outcome, and prices move as people trade based on what they believe.
The twist is the currency. Trading uses play money called mana, which cannot be converted to cash, so no one risks a real deposit. Any user can create a market on any question they like, from politics and technology to personal goals or whimsical topics. The creator resolves it, expected to follow clear resolution criteria set in advance, and Manifold’s moderators can overturn a resolution in exceptional cases. That low barrier explains why the questions are so varied.
Because stakes are fictional, prices can reflect enthusiasm, joking or a handful of active traders, and thinly traded markets can sit on an arbitrary number. Resolution depends on the creator’s judgement and the stated criteria, so some questions end in disputes. The figure is a market opinion, not a forecast with a known accuracy, and the board takes no position on any outcome or on trading.
A worked example
What a play-money prediction market currently believes, key-less. Distinct from the site's Polymarket saver: Manifold runs on play currency so anyone can open a market on anything, and the board is ranked by the last day's trading rather than by size.
Settings & tips
- Accent and Background recolour the display.
- Every number on screen comes from the live source — nothing is simulated.
- Press ESC to leave fullscreen.
Frequently asked questions
- Is this real data?
- Yes — it comes from the source named on this page and is refreshed on a schedule.
- Is a key needed?
- No. This source is fully key-less.
- Is it free?
- Yes — free, no download, in your browser.
- What is mana?
- Mana is Manifold’s play currency, used to place bets on markets. It cannot be converted to cash, so there is no real-money deposit.
- Who decides how a market resolves?
- Usually the person who created it, following the criteria set out in the question. Manifold’s moderators can overturn a resolution in exceptional cases.